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<!doctype html><html><head><title>The Dot and the Swarm - by Ethan Mollick - One Useful Thing</title><link rel="stylesheet" href="https://substackcdn.com/bundle/theme/main.css"></head><body><h1>One Useful Thing</h1><article class="newsletter-post"><h1 dir="auto" class="post-title published title-X77sOw">The Dot and the Swarm</h1><h3 dir="auto" class="subtitle subtitle-HEEcLo">Benefitting from the Bitter Lesson</h3><div class="body markup"><p>I generally think I have done a good job anticipating the direction and pace of AI over the few years I have been writing this Substack, but I think I recently got something fairly large wrong. In the last year I have been posting about how I suspected that humans would have to approach working with agents as a manager, deciding how to delegate work to agents and specifying how those agents should be organized. I thought that getting agents to work effectively as a group would take careful construction, akin to building a company, and that this would take time to figure out.</p><p>Nope.</p><h1 class="header-anchor-post">Dots and Muse<div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-alignItems-center pc-position-absolute pc-reset header-anchor-parent"><div class="pencraft pc-display-contents pc-reset pubTheme-yiXxQA"><div id="§dots-and-muse" class="pencraft pc-reset header-anchor offset-top"></div><button tabindex="0" type="button" aria-label="Link" data-href="https://www.oneusefulthing.org/i/218255099/dots-and-muse" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft iconButton-mq_Et5 iconButtonBase-dJGHgN buttonBase-GK1x3M buttonStyle-r7yGCK size_sm-G3LciD priority_secondary-S63h9o"></button></div></div></h1><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!u0Eq!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5b1b1cec-f9a0-4945-80f4-19c32ec86f75_1320x2314.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM" class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img can-restack"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!u0Eq!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5b1b1cec-f9a0-4945-80f4-19c32ec86f75_1320x2314.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!u0Eq!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5b1b1cec-f9a0-4945-80f4-19c32ec86f75_1320x2314.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!u0Eq!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5b1b1cec-f9a0-4945-80f4-19c32ec86f75_1320x2314.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!u0Eq!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5b1b1cec-f9a0-4945-80f4-19c32ec86f75_1320x2314.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!u0Eq!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5b1b1cec-f9a0-4945-80f4-19c32ec86f75_1320x2314.png" width="232" height="406.7030303030303" data-attrs="{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5b1b1cec-f9a0-4945-80f4-19c32ec86f75_1320x2314.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":2314,"width":1320,"resizeWidth":232,"bytes":1039551,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":"https://www.oneusefulthing.org/i/218255099?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5b1b1cec-f9a0-4945-80f4-19c32ec86f75_1320x2314.png","isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!u0Eq!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5b1b1cec-f9a0-4945-80f4-19c32ec86f75_1320x2314.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!u0Eq!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5b1b1cec-f9a0-4945-80f4-19c32ec86f75_1320x2314.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!u0Eq!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5b1b1cec-f9a0-4945-80f4-19c32ec86f75_1320x2314.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!u0Eq!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5b1b1cec-f9a0-4945-80f4-19c32ec86f75_1320x2314.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy" class="sizing-normal"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image buttonBase-GK1x3M"></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image buttonBase-GK1x3M"></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p data-attrs="{"url":"https://co-existence.ai/","text":"Pre-order my new book!","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton" class="button-wrapper"><a href="https://co-existence.ai/" class="button primary"><span>Pre-order my new book!</span></a></p><h1 class="header-anchor-post">Swarms<div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-alignItems-center pc-position-absolute pc-reset header-anchor-parent"><div class="pencraft pc-display-contents pc-reset pubTheme-yiXxQA"><div id="§swarms" class="pencraft pc-reset header-anchor offset-top"></div><button tabindex="0" type="button" aria-label="Link" data-href="https://www.oneusefulthing.org/i/218255099/swarms" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft iconButton-mq_Et5 iconButtonBase-dJGHgN buttonBase-GK1x3M buttonStyle-r7yGCK size_sm-G3LciD priority_secondary-S63h9o"></button></div></div></h1><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!antz!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F092604f1-d651-47eb-82f4-261cc2b4e50e_2316x899.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM" class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img can-restack"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!antz!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F092604f1-d651-47eb-82f4-261cc2b4e50e_2316x899.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!antz!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F092604f1-d651-47eb-82f4-261cc2b4e50e_2316x899.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!antz!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F092604f1-d651-47eb-82f4-261cc2b4e50e_2316x899.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!antz!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F092604f1-d651-47eb-82f4-261cc2b4e50e_2316x899.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!antz!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F092604f1-d651-47eb-82f4-261cc2b4e50e_2316x899.png" width="1456" height="565" data-attrs="{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/092604f1-d651-47eb-82f4-261cc2b4e50e_2316x899.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":565,"width":1456,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":282060,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":"https://www.oneusefulthing.org/i/218255099?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F092604f1-d651-47eb-82f4-261cc2b4e50e_2316x899.png","isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!antz!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F092604f1-d651-47eb-82f4-261cc2b4e50e_2316x899.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!antz!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F092604f1-d651-47eb-82f4-261cc2b4e50e_2316x899.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!antz!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F092604f1-d651-47eb-82f4-261cc2b4e50e_2316x899.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!antz!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F092604f1-d651-47eb-82f4-261cc2b4e50e_2316x899.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy" class="sizing-normal"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image buttonBase-GK1x3M"></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image buttonBase-GK1x3M"></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Agents at work (but don’t worry, this is just an example, I come up with all my post ideas on my own, just like I write all the initial drafts myself, only asking for AI feedback when I am done)</figcaption></figure></div><h1 class="header-anchor-post">A Not-Entirely-Bitter Lesson<div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-alignItems-center pc-position-absolute pc-reset header-anchor-parent"><div class="pencraft pc-display-contents pc-reset pubTheme-yiXxQA"><div id="§a-not-entirely-bitter-lesson" class="pencraft pc-reset header-anchor offset-top"></div><button tabindex="0" type="button" aria-label="Link" data-href="https://www.oneusefulthing.org/i/218255099/a-not-entirely-bitter-lesson" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft iconButton-mq_Et5 iconButtonBase-dJGHgN buttonBase-GK1x3M buttonStyle-r7yGCK size_sm-G3LciD priority_secondary-S63h9o"></button></div></div></h1><p><em><span>Also, a reminder that I have</span><a href="https://co-existence.ai/"> a new book, Co-Existence, coming out October 20</a><span>, and, if you are interested in reading or listening to it (I read the audiobook, a little too fast), you may want to pre-order, which both helps me as an author and gives you access to a very cool pre-order bonus.</span></em></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Narw!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe3014425-47c2-47aa-848b-3528f4dc9517_2912x1632.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM" class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img can-restack"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Narw!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe3014425-47c2-47aa-848b-3528f4dc9517_2912x1632.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Narw!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe3014425-47c2-47aa-848b-3528f4dc9517_2912x1632.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Narw!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe3014425-47c2-47aa-848b-3528f4dc9517_2912x1632.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Narw!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe3014425-47c2-47aa-848b-3528f4dc9517_2912x1632.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Narw!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe3014425-47c2-47aa-848b-3528f4dc9517_2912x1632.png" width="624" height="349.7142857142857" data-attrs="{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e3014425-47c2-47aa-848b-3528f4dc9517_2912x1632.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":816,"width":1456,"resizeWidth":624,"bytes":1863988,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":"https://www.oneusefulthing.org/i/218255099?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe3014425-47c2-47aa-848b-3528f4dc9517_2912x1632.png","isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Narw!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe3014425-47c2-47aa-848b-3528f4dc9517_2912x1632.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Narw!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe3014425-47c2-47aa-848b-3528f4dc9517_2912x1632.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Narw!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe3014425-47c2-47aa-848b-3528f4dc9517_2912x1632.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Narw!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe3014425-47c2-47aa-848b-3528f4dc9517_2912x1632.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy" class="sizing-normal"></picture><div 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